A second lockdown birthday and ushering in the Roaring ‘20s?

What's common between a 2nd lockdown birthday and the Roaring '20s you ask?

 

A high potential for a consumer demand comeback, that is what's common.

Let me dial back a bit.

I celebrated my second birthday in lockdown around two weeks ago. It was a jovial day, full of gregarious chats with family and lifetime friends. Beautiful wishes on social media - facebook and LinkedIn, mainly - made it even more special. I cut my favourite, if atypical, birthday cake: a cheesecake. And, I had some bubbly to go with it.

Sounds like a pretty decent day, right?

Except that this year, unlike the last one, I really felt like being out and about on my special day. And I could not, so I am somewhat impatiently holding-off the real celebration till such time that I can. Outdoor dining opens here from April 12 onwards.

But in feeling this impatience - I finally connected with a sense of what has widely been called the ‘pent-up consumer demand’. This demand is expected to lead to a spurt in consumer spending over the rest of the year and maybe even carry over into 2022.

In fact, some forecasts are saying that we may even be back to the ‘Roaring 20s’, which refers to the 1920s - a decade of economic boom in the western world.

Happy New Year : Looking back, to look ahead

Yet another new year is upon us. There is, of course the joy of moving forward.

But there is also some trepidation.

2020 was a tough one, and the challenges we faced last year follow us into this one too. Yet, I think it came with its own kind of illumination.

There are at least 3 facets of life that I have walked away enriched about because of all that 2020 brought with it:

Cut short

 As I closed my eyes with the realisation that it was really all over, all of it flashed before my eyes. The wonderful memories I had created with family and friends. The impromptu weekend breaks - here we are getting drenched in the rain, but there’s still time for selfies. And then there’s us standing under the grand, historic arches of the ancient, imposing fort.

The gorgeous yellow flower I found lying forlorn on the ground when I was out for my run. The looped meowing of the cat as she sat in my lap in the morning. That red mulled wine mug I had intended to buy on Amazon, but still wanted a second opinion on its aesthetics. The late-night coffees, when there was no such feeling as being over-caffeinated.

And then there was the work. All the hours of labouring over my daily writing and that big-data will now come to nothing. The rush of getting that coveted job, the thrill of being admitted to the program I so wanted to study, the projects, the exchanges and the teamwork.

But everything will go on, like it always does.

Only this time, everyone who touched my life and whose life I touched will hold these memories with them.

Why did this have to happen, I think as my heart sinks deeper into an abyss. And I think of all the others like me, with me at this time. Who would cause this mass destruction? And why would they?

But suddenly I come back online. My Gmail is now restored. It was a temporary outage that affected my mails and everything I store on my Google Drive. My account, that apparently had ceased to exist moments ago, is now back.

I’ll never take my online life for granted again.

Dedicated to the Google services outage I experienced yesterday.

Burning: Haunting with unanswered questions

In the 2018 Korean film, Burning, a guest character says it is “No country for women”, alluding to the societal pressures faced by women. It also refers to what lies at the heart of this fascinating film. A young girl who mysteriously disappears one day, leading to a series of events that end in an unexpected conclusion.

By the looks of it, Burning has all the strands of a Haruki Murakami short-story, on which it is actually based. But like many of Murakami’s works, the story called Barn Burning, is a focused exploration of surreal human journeys, that illuminate as much as they mystify. His stories rarely, if ever, are an active commentary on socio-economic situations in which the characters exist.

Burning, on the other hand, not just moves Murakami’s original story from his favoured city, Tokyo, to the South Korean capital, Seoul; it also adds layer upon layer of context to it. I think of it as a cross between Murakami and this year’s Oscar winner, Parasite. Interestingly, it was the first Korean film to make it to the list of nine-finalists in the Best Foreign Film category at the Oscars. Much like Parasite, Burning looks at uncomfortable class differences with an unrelenting gaze. It too is from the perspective of the underclass, with a take on youth unemployment and gender driven challenges.

Thoughts on the plus size and how it is not just about our health

 

While browsing through my facebook feed recently, I came across a story from Humans of New York. For those who might not know, it is a highly popular facebook page, that has chronicled stories of New Yorkers for years now. In this particular multi-part story, the narrator described a particular lady as being so rich that she had never had pizza. “Not a single slice..”, says the story.

This particular sentence was the trigger for this post. Because it took me back to so much I had been thinking about healthy eating choices. A trip to the supermarket makes it quite clear that among the easy to consume options, the healthiest ones are among the most expensive. My favourite example is that which compares smoothies with frozen pizzas.

It is no wonder then, that there is a rise in the incidence of obesity among lower socio-economic classes. According to an NHS update from 2018, which quotes an academic study, children born in lower socio-economic classes had a lower average weight in 1946. But by 2001, the reverse was true. This update also goes on to say that “energy-rich, nutritionally poor meals tend to be cheaper and quicker to cook”. My short point is to highlight the link between an unhealthy diet and income levels.

And this is hardly just a UK based phenomenon, it is a global one. A few years ago while doing research for a non-profit client, I went over the Global Nutrition Report. Among other things, it talked about how malnutrition is manifested. It shows up both as the condition of being underweight as well as overweight.

Coming from India, I’m most familiar with undernourishment resulting in being underweight. Children with visible rib cages and distended bellies begging at Delhi’s traffic signals is a sight I grew up seeing. But the latter was an eye opener. Even more eye opening is the fact that the number of obese people globally is 600 million today, which beats the 462 million who are underweight according to WHO numbers.

I think these numbers gain particular significance, in the midst of a pandemic. According to the London based World Obesity Federation, there is likely to be a positive correlation between people vulnerable to coronavirus and a Body Mass Index of over 25.

In light of these facts, I’m also reminded of a Vogue magazine cover from a couple of years ago, which had a plus size model on its cover. This was clearly a departure from the norm, for a magazine which often has celebrities, but who are clearly in good shape. Full points for inclusivity, I mean, what is not to like? Except, that it may just be normalising obesity, is the one thought that crosses my mind. I think the approach is great, when we are talking about other conditions, like down-syndrome. Madeline Stuart, is an Australian model with the syndrome. And she got featured in Teen Vogue. The difference is, that obesity often, is reversible.

I have not read the article itself, so said model, Tess Holliday, might have been profiled for reasons very different from the size factor. And needless to say, she shouldn’t be judged at all. But inclusivity is a different ball-game, if that was the idea.In fact, it may just be the choice between equality and inclusivity.

Why Saint Maud is a film that resonates in the present times

Saint Maud, the new British horror film, is about a traumatised and lonely girl who loses her job as a private carer. She finds solace in spirituality, but it can’t save her from her own psychological challenges. At any other time, it would be easier to chalk up Maud’s behaviour as tragic, but ultimately fringe oddity.

We aren’t living in regular times, however. The extraordinary turn seen in our collective lives this year has taken a toll on mental health. According to a BBC report, there’s expected to be a 20% rise in referrals to the NHS mental health services from the pre-coronavirus period. While the report doesn’t mention the exact causes, they aren’t hard to imagine. Pandemic distress, isolation and rising unemployment can all play a part in weighing people down.

I don’t know if the pandemic driven lockdowns inspired the film in any way or if it was already under production when Covid-19 hit. In any case, I think it may resonate more now than it probably would have in the past, even if it is quite extreme. The film starts with what looks like an ambiguous medical accident, which occurred while Maud was working as a nurse. Following this episode, she becomes a carer for Amanda, a former dancer, who is living out her final days with a terminal illness.

The women form an unlikely friendship. While Maud has taken to devout religiosity after leaving her former job and leads a solitary, austere life; Amanda is still living life to the fullest, replete with dressing up, despite her worsening state, friendships and overall enjoyment. Things take a turn for the worse when Maud tries to assume the role of Amanda’s ‘saviour’ by taking it a step too far. It all goes downhill for Maud from there.

There are multiple ways to try and understand Maud’s motivations, which makes it a piece of
cinema that you can churn in the mind long after having watched it. It is likely that Maud is just a misguided young girl looking for purpose. Equally likely is the fact that she is possessive about Amanda, and finds a religious justification for her behaviour. It’s also possible that Maud quite genuinely feels that she can save Amanda’s soul. Whatever way we look at it, her descent into her own belief system greys the line between spiritual revelations and a psychologically strained state. 

Bad Boy Billionaires and Serious Men: Ambition gone wrong in India

I watched two Netflix productions from India this week. The first was the three-part documentary Bad Boy Billionaires and the second was Serious Men. One about Indian tycoons who took big loans through both an over-optimistic and corrupt banking system as well as ran ponzi schemes. The other is about a lower-caste, struggling man trying to shoot for the stars by fraudulently projecting his son as a science and mathematics prodigy. The stories might seem different from each other, especially considering that one is based on facts and the other is fictional, but they aren’t. At the heart of these stories is huge ambition, which may not be bad in itself, if getting to the finish line didn’t involve whatever means necessary. That’s what is problematic.

First, Bad Boy Billionaires. It covers three Indian businessmen, each with one episode each. The first is Vijay Mallya, a liquor brand and later airline owner; the second is Nirav Modi, a jeweller who had a dizzying rise to fame and a descent as quick and the third is Subrata Roy, who started out by tapping the bottom of the pyramid with an investment scheme and went on to develop multiple business interests. Lack of checks in these companies, combined with a disorganised system (at the very least) meant that the damage control wasn’t done in time.

As a result, entrepreneurial animal spirits ran amok, proving to be quite disruptive for the Indian economy. For anyone who is interested in what’s going on with it, I’d highly recommend Bad Boy Billionaires. By no means does it reflect the entirety of the country or its economy. In fact, the tycoons have vehemently denied the charges against them, as would be expected, and the verdict is still out there. But it is still an important documentary, considering that the spectre of bad loans is still haunting India. After the pandemic, the number is sure to rise as businesses pull their shutters down.

According to a Reuters report, 15% of India’s total loans could be classified as bad debt by March 2021. The whole bad debt saga has been going on for longer than I can remember now. Policies have been put in place to correct the situation, credit worthiness checks have become tougher but the problem refuses to die. In fact, it is only poised to become bigger. I only hope that no other big corporation variety busts happen now.

Dismal economic conditions and rising unemployment will anyway add another layer of unbearable inequality to a country that doesn’t just have glaring class differences but centuries of caste oppression built into the system. The last thing India needs right now is the story of a mega rich businessperson who got uncontrollably possessed by a desire to amass more. It’s ultimately the taxpayer that ends up footing the bill for such unchecked activities, and when the little guy who’s diligently been filing his taxes is burdened unfairly at a sorry economic time, I’m just scared of how the story may eventually play out.

Which brings me to Serious Men. It is exactly the story about the little guy. The guy who was born in conditions so abject, he could barely afford an education. But he’s determined to rise by projecting his little son as a child prodigy. The game is played well and the father- son duo are able to get away with it as long as they are relatively obscure. This is an obscurity that comes from being so seemingly inconsequential to the system that no one really questions if it's for real.

Until the truth starts tumbling out. Yet, there’s sympathy for the character; and for those of us who know India will agree, it’s well placed. The film puts the spotlight on sharp income inequalities that can just not be ignored. Ayyan Mani, the protagonist is not just struggling economically, he is also from a low caste, which means he carries the burden of historical inability to improve conditions for himself and his family. 

Like in the case of this year’s Oscar winner for best film, Parasite, his scheming is uncomfortable. But unlike in Parasite, I did not struggle to sympathise with the family in question. Here the edge is much softer and the extent of scheming far smaller. Mani’s wife, for instance, is absolutely unaware of the ‘secret’ between her husband and son. And your heart goes out to her character who is the only real victim here. The end of course, isn’t a particularly happy one, but it’s dignified.

After watching both productions, that in itself felt good. Allowing ambition to trip them over has cost India’s big businessmen a lot, and that of course includes a cringeworthy loss of dignity. Roy, for instance, once had black ink thrown at him. Mallya has been branded a fugitive and Modi is in prison. Fictional as he might be, Mani had a quieter and far more respectable way out it would seem. 

India’s economy has grown fast which I think is part of the reason why there’s such a rush to capture a piece of the pie. But what happens in a situation where everyone starts ruthlessly aspiring big? It can’t be good. But thankfully, this is only one part of the India story. Maybe I’ll write more on another side the next time.

The public apologies keep rolling in

First Published: April 1, 2018

In the past three weeks, the number of public apologies that have come in from people who are answerable to the masses is atypically high. While they are almost always tactical in nature, it does seem like a rather swift way of getting things back on track without much ado.

The apologies started with someone called Naresh Aggarwal, who recently joined the national ruling party BJP, quitting the Uttar Pradesh regional party – the Samajwadi Party. Apparently, he was miffed that the legislative seat that he was supposed to get the ticket to, was given to Jaya Bachchan instead, who is a former actress and continues to be popular i.e. make occasional news, thanks in part to her illustrious film family. Aggarwal, in an interview, said that the ticket had been given to people who dance in films, or something to that effect. Given that Bachchan is a well-respected actress, and the remark smacks of sexism, the remark attracted the annoyance of none other than the Union External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj. Aggarwal had to then retract his remark and apologise to Bachchan in the media. Thumbs up here to girl power!

Thoughts on inequality: Supporting the homeless, Mumbai’s glaring divides and Piketty's arguments

A couple of weeks ago, I had an experience in faith restoration towards the world. As someone who believes in giving to the homeless, I get reproached on occasion. There are very well meaning reasons behind this: My well wishers think that my money is being spent on people who might be addicts, and supporting them means supporting addiction. The other is, that since this is a student (read, idealistic) city, the chances of the travelling homeless to find sympathetic passersby is higher and hence it is a strategic call to be here than anywhere else. It often turns into an endless debate, where I give counter arguments, followed by theirs and so forth.

The other day, however, my experience provided me some clincher evidence to support my initial instincts. I gave to a homeless man sitting outside a supermarket right before entering inside. It was late in the evening – maybe 10pm – and when I stepped out, the man came to me and thanked me profusely for the donation. He said that he wanted to sleep in the hostel for the night and needed enought money for it. Along with what I and others had given him, he would now be able to do so.

Eliminating Period Poverty, across countries

Period poverty is a challenge not just of the developing world, but developed countries too. On a positive note though, each is finding its own way of tackling it. In India, tax on sanitary napkins was removed recently and much effort has been made to break the taboo around a discussion on the matter. Producers and retailers of these sanitary products in the UK are also creating greater awareness on this subject, besides making a contributiont to eliminating it.

In a revision of tax rates under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Government of India de-taxed sanitary products from the earlier rate of 12%, a hard won victory in the concerted drive towards ensuring that necessities remain free from taxation.  In a country where girls drop out of schools on puberty on account of being unable to afford menstrual products, this is a step in the right direction.

It remains to be seen whether sanitary product prices will indeed fall as a result, since the manufacturers can no longer avail of the input tax credit for taxes already paid at various stages of production of the end good. But that is the next question. For now, a first breakthrough has been achieved. And with no small effort. 

Gender neutrality in defining professions

As a student of the German language, I made an attempt at introducing myself to the class a few weeks ago, only to stumble on the word for my profession (and despite my lovely teacher's consistent encouragement). It turns out that the word for 'economist' in the language is Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerin.I know, right? Challenging as the word is, this was only the tip of what is worth dwelling over.

It turns out, that in German, the word for a female economist is different from a male economist. The word being as opposed to Wirtschaftswissenchaftlerfor a male economist. Which, of course, led to a quick discussion on the question of gender neutrality in defining professions. Particularly so, since it is a sharp distinction from the terms used in the English language. An economist, is an economist, irrespective of their gender. No one is slotted as a female economist or a male economist. Which makes sense. Because, what difference does the gender make in a profession about numbers and analysis? In all the years of being one and engaging with other economists I have never seen difference in either inclination or capability.

Remembering Sridevi: A superstar who embraced the alt personality

When I was growing up in the 1980s in India, Sridevi was a very big star in the Hindi film industry. In a decade marked with kitsch aesthetics and uninspired plotlines, she may as well have single handedly made the decade worth remembering. And this is not just for her atypical portrayals of the film heroine, but also the effortlessly feminist content she pulled off.

My first memory of Sridevi’s is watching her in Nagina. In the film she plays the role of a dutiful wife and daughter in law, who is in fact, the original super hero. A shape shifting snake woman who can take on any form she desires. Her alt personality protects her family from any possible harm that may come to them, without their even knowing about it. And when push comes to shove, she makes no qualms about making open threats to the tantric, also played expertly by Amrish Puri, to back off.

Women in Economics

A few months ago I delievered a talk at the University of Lancaster, on gender and economics, an excerpt from which, was posted on this blog here.

Based on some of these ideas, one of the students-Tamara Krivskaya- wrote an engaging post for the university blog. She points out to the gender differential in the number of women taking up economics as a study field, a number she utilises to make a point on the need for more female role models in these areas! Read her post below.

Talk Excerpt: How women’s full participation gets systematically eliminated

I recently delivered a talk on why it makes economic sense to have women fully participate in the labour force. But the time I was preparing for the talk coincided with the huge, unmissable #MeToo campaign on social media. At this point, I decided to focus more on how women get eliminated from the system as such, because that still requires so much emphasis, and less so on the effect on the economy. Here is one excerpt:

There are essentially three stages at which women and their participation get systematically eliminated from the system. In this case, I will consider the example of India, since that is a society and economy I know and have studied. However, some ideas discussed are applicable across countries of the world, including developed countries like the UK and the US. 

Lamenting the loss of the ‘Sanskaari naari’ #Humor

I write today with a heavy heart. The world just isn’t what it used to be. Indian culture and values are disappearing under the wave of globalisation, and youth from our culture are increasingly adopting western ways. They are losing their ethos, and so is the society. 

Just the other day, there was a photograph of one girl who has acted in our films circulating on the internet. I don’t know her name or which films she has acted in, but she was seen with Ranbir Kapoor so she must be significant. Both these people were sitting around in some western country holding cigarettes in their hands. Is this the behaviour of good girls? Sitting around in public with young men and smoking?

Much ado about Nepotism

It has been 5 months since the Kangana Ranaut episode appeared on Koffee with Karan, but a can of worms once opened, does the damage for some time, as we have all witnessed (and written about). Kangana Ranaut, the swashbuckling cracker of a personality, a gift to women's self-esteem everywhere, is of course, the one to have inaugurated it. I have not heard/read the word 'Nepotism' as many times in my entire life as I have, in the past few months. So here are my two bits on it.

First, let me start out by getting my cynical side out of the way. Bollywood is an industry that thrives on recall. Because, popularity, for reasons good or bad. So it works for everyone if the controversy keeps getting fuelled with open letters and the like. I won't be surprised if Karan Johar, Kangana Ranaut and Saif Ali Khan are in the Koffee with Karan studio or in Karan Johar's actual living room right now, clinking their glasses of bubbly and celebrating the stupendous success of the episode. 

Economist's art on Modi's India

Unlike Modi covers in the past, which show his photographs, the latest Economist cover story on the PM has a a very interesting illustration. A careful look at it reveals much. 

For one, PM Modi has a distinct air of former PM Singh. From the tired expression to the relatively slight physique. Given the challenges that India presents at any point of time, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Economist detected something of Singh weariness in Modi. Barring of course, the possibility that their information was not updated for India PM and half way through illustrating they realised - oh damn, different guy! Unlikely, but a fun thought.

Two, slightness of build though might have an  unintended symbolism as well. PM Modi has some focus on a healthy India, whether through the celebration of the Yoga day or the mooting of a Fat Tax. And for anyone who has been following India carefully, they know that the latter is already underway.

When fashion is feminist

The last post talked about Vogue India’s latest cover, which has Anushka Sharma wearing a t-shirt that says ‘We should all be feminists’. Feminist fashion has been lapped up in recent times by other movie stars as well. A case in point being Alia Bhatt, who was recently spotted wearing an upper that said ‘F for Feminist’. Deepika Padukone was also recently seen wearing a top that said ‘The Force is Female’. 

The fact that the feminism is now openly and proudly put on display by high fashion, shows how trending the theme has become. But the fashion industry, has actually in its own way, been quite feminist for a very long time now. Consider the highly popular, if now outdated TV series, Sex and the City. Its glamorous, frothy, eye-candy. But if you look carefully, it could be more. Carrie Bradshaw, the main lead, is a fashionista who does her own thing. Her fashion choices can be unpredictable, bold, wild and downright unpalatable. But they are her. Of course the fact that she is constantly caught up in the world of brands, even at the cost of having financial stability when it comes to the crunch; runs after a man who treats her with disregard and emotional unavailability and not to mention, has little personality, hardly reflect a woman who knows how to do what’s best for her. In fact, for haters of the series, she is the ultimate air head. But the point here is this, she is still showing ferocious independence in her fashion choices (as well as her sexual ones, which is another topic) which is not always easy to put on display.

Can we spare Kelly some privacy?

I totally understand if the title of this story sounds completely ironic, considering it is yet another one on the video bombed professor as he attempted to calmly express his views on Korean geo-politics on BBC. But the number of angles and opinions were so sharp in themselves, yours truly had to react. (Also, I have not seen anything on the latest Karan Johar interview, so don’t know what’s going on in that land).

Ok, so for those of you who have not had a chance to catch up on this latest viral gem, the background is that Professor Kelly, a political scientist at the Pusan National University in South Korea was live on BBC sharing his views, when one of his kids walked in with great aplomb into the room, to park herself next to where daddy was sitting. Ostensibly the clueless dad had not figured out by then what was going on behind him, and when the BBC anchor told him that one of his kids just walked in, he gently tried to push the child away from the camera with little effect. Just as he was doing so, his younger one also decided to have some share of the limelight, strolling right in, in a walker. Kelly’s embarrassment is palpable, and so is the horror on the face of the children’s caregiver who runs in a few seconds later only to drag the children (quite literally) out of the room after some banging into doors. Leaving the door open, she makes a final appearance, not even getting a chance to stand up before closing it, finally leaving the poor professor in peace to discuss the Korean situation.

How not to give women (or anyone) awards

At a time when entrepreneurship is being promoted, and women’s entrepreneurship is particularly highlighted, there are new awards being instituted for women every day. Across organisations, everyone has their own selection of awards for women.

Considering that women need to participate more in the workforce, and be fairly represented at truly decision making senior levels it is easy to see why this is happening. Except, the manner in which it takes place, once in a while, leaves me speechless.

So it happened once I turned entrepreneur, and hit a particular milestone in my journey I was approached by someone who said they could manage an award for me. At the very least, a ‘Woman of Substance’ award, is what they said. Now this individual does not represent the organisation from whom they intended to get the reward. They have a third party affiliation of some kind with them, which I now forget the details of. And this happened not once but twice. Needless to say, from the word go, it sounded like such a questionable proposition that I did not encourage the conversation.